Summative assessment paper/presentation

The population projections for United states , China , Japan , Mexico and Brazil indicates the possible changes based on various assumptions about the rates of birth , deaths and overall net migration in the international arena. Hence, the values projected present the possible outcomes if the assumptions highlighted are to hold true. There are various factors that can influence the change components and there is no degree of certainty for predicting them. The total population for United States, Mexico, China and Brazil is expected to increase marginally by the year 2050 while the Japan population is expected to decrease.

 From 2000 to 2050 the projection shows the U.S population increasing from about 319 million from 2014 to about 400 million in 2050 > by 2030, one fifth of the population forecasted to be 65 years and above , with the trend indicating an aging population over the following decades. In the long-run, the total population for individuals below 18 years of age is expected to reduce from about 23 % to 20 % between 2014 and 2050 (United States Census Bureau, 2016). In addition, the working population is expected to reduce to around 57 % from 62 % in 2014 which indicated a reduction in the number of people with purchasing power. At the same time the percentage of population with an age 65 and above is expected to rise with about 9 % points by the year 2050. This means that country will have an increase in number of individuals reaching the retirement age with decreasing number of newborns in the population. The market across the country is expected to lean more towards the aged since they have the purchasing power and their percentage in the population will be increasing by 2050(United States Census Bureau, 2016).

The population projections indicate that China and Japan will experience a decrease in the population by the year 2050. Between 2000 and 2050, the population in China will be around 1.3 Billion people from about 1.4 Billion in 2015. This is a significant decrease considering that for such an observation to occur, the rate of death has to be higher than the birth rate. In addition, the projection shows the possibility of an increasing aged population with a striking growth in the 65 and above age category. The projections also indicate a decreasing fertility rate in China (United States Census Bureau, 2016). The percentage of the population for the children between 1 to 4 years of age is predicted to decrease for the years leading to 2050, with a percentage of about 3.2 % and 2.8 % currently for male and female child respectively while the population for people aged   over 64 years is about 2.1 percent, and the projection shows an increase in this trend. This case also applies to Japan, where total population is projected to reduce from 126.5 million in 2015 to 107.2 million in the year 2050. This decrease also involves a decreasing population of the young people, especially for the children between 1 to 4 years of age. The demographic trend indicates that the population percentage for the people aged above 64 years is increasing, a trend that is expected to continue into the future. The children population is expected to diminish into the future, following a previous trend that has been the same.  This decline is expected along a reduced rate of fertility trend, which will align to the predicted depopulation process. In the last projection of the year, the population for the children is expected to have decline to about 10.8 million across the country.  With a demographic trend showing a rapidly aging population, there is a similarity in demographic trend among the United States, Japan and China in the age category (United States Census Bureau, 2016). The highest rise in the aging population is indicated to found in China, followed by Japan and then United States.

However, a different trend is indicated in Mexico and Brazil in terms of demographic components. In Brazil, the population is expected to increase to 232.3 million in 2050 from 207. 4 million in 2015, a trend that has been observed since 2000. The percentage of aging population is shown to be increasing but at a slower rate than in the United States. Though mortality rate is expected to reduce by 2050, it will be marginally higher. This case can also be observed in Mexico where population is expected to increase to 150 million by 2050 from about 124.6 million people in 2015 (United States Census Bureau, 2016).  The fertility rate is expected to reduce in both countries but the percentage of children in the population is projected to be higher than United States in both countries. The percentage of aging population in the category of the group aged above 65 years is expected to increase but at a lower rate than that expected in United States. The overall data for the 5 countries indicates a similar trend, where aging population is increasing with fertility rate decreasing. However, Brazil and Mexico show a higher percentage of young population s compared to United States, Japan and China (United States Census Bureau, 2016).

As per the above data Japan will have the highest percentage demand between 2000 and 2050 for the retirement villages. This is because the percentage of population for the 65 years and above category is higher currently 3.8 and 4.0 percent for men and women respectively, higher than United States, China (2.1 %), Mexico (1.1 – 1.3 %) and Brazil (1.4 -1.7 %) (United States Census Bureau, 2016). In addition, this portion of the population is expected to increase by 2050, meaning the more people will be attaining the retirement age. On the other hand, Mexico will be having the highest percentage demand for the diapers products give that its current percentage of children is about 4 percent, and this trend is expected to increase by the 2050. China with the highest percentage increase in aging population and decrease in the younger population will have the greatest absolute increase in retirement villages demand. On the other hand, Mexico is projected to have the greatest increase in total population – over 26 million - with the largest percentage being young generation and hence it will have the largest absolute increase diaper demand.

The market in these countries may be compared in terms of culture and their long-term orientation. The change in the demographic trends can be related to how each country maintains connection with its past while addressing the current and future challenges.  The United States Power Distance score at forty is results from the emphasis on equality, a loosely-knit society and high level of geographical population (GEERT HOFSTEDE, n.d). This can indicate the desire to be self-dependant which sees reduced rate of births as the society is driven by competition for success. The microeconomic environment is expected to have cutthroat competition. The less the children burden the more capacity for mobility. With Japan as normative society where people are absorbed in achieving highest success, the market is based on a restrained culture and the perception of social norms restraining actions. More pursuit for personal achievements leads to reduced fertility. This can also be said of China; with its normative culture based on social norms orientation sees adoption of policies reducing the number of births. Mexico high score on masculinity shows a country whose market is driven by competition and with rigid behavior and belief codes.  Brazil is a society that holds with high regards the need for rules and regulation in the society (GEERT HOFSTEDE, n.d). The micro-economic environment is expected to be highly influenced by the regulation system that can dictate market competition and entry into the market. With various cultural differences across the country and different projection in population trend, the players in the microeconomic environment should be expected to react differently.

Conclusion

The comparison for the projected population between United States, Japan, China, Mexico and Brazil indicates a varying trend for the demand of both diapers and retirement villages. Japan and China projection shows a higher percentage of aged population by 2050 that United States while Mexico and Brazil shows a higher percentage of younger population. The different score in cultural aspects influence the trend of population composition and the micro-economic environment.

Reference

United States Census Bureau, (2016). U.S. and World Population Clock. https://www.census.gov/popclock/

GEERT HOFSTEDE. Cultural dimensions. Retrieved from:  https://geert-hofstede.com/countries.html