National political polls

                        They do not always represent reality because they may predict results that will contradict the final results. One example of this is the poll conducted in 2012 which predicted that Mitt Romney who was the Republicans’ nominee would win against President Obama (Ceaser, 1993). This was not the case when the final results were announced as President Barrack Obama won. Public opinion polls have failed greatly in recent years causing embarrassments that even led to an obligated leading firm to carry out an internal audit to find out the cause. Surveys are usually carried out in election years by some Research Centers. They focus on the issue preference of the people, commitment during the election, opinions about the candidates, voter preferences and views of the campaign. Most polls also include the identification of the parties, the behavior of the voting in the past and how voters react to events (Ceaser, 1993).

Election polls are seen to attract a lot of attention for their capability to foresee the results of elections. The surveys are important in helping the citizens and journalists in understanding the meaning of the elections and campaigns. They are also important in showing the kind of issues are important among other things. They also show how the qualities of the candidates may affect the decision of the voters and the kind of support there is for certain policy changes (Schuman, 2008). Voter preferences are determined through certain features of questions that show several choices. This includes the candidates, mention of party affiliation and the randomizing of order of presentation. Surveys are also carried out through follow up questions for the voters who do not express initial choice. This helps in obtaining a preference. The voters who support one of the candidates are usually integrated in the tabulation of voter preference. The last issue in looking for the preference of the voter is asking them whether the respondents will at all the times answer honestly when questioned about their choice (Schuman, 2008).

            Polling methodology for many years was being carried out through telecommunications or face to face. There are various techniques and methods that are used and are accepted widely in most areas. For many years innovations in technology have been seen to influence methods of survey like electronic clipboards availability and polling that are based on the internet. Other methods include ballot, verbal, and processed styles which may be conducted effectively. Other types contrast this as they may be complicated and they include complicated matrices, orthodox procedures and systematic. Web polls are conducted through the citizens who want to participate and not the use of a scientific sample of the population and are therefore not considered professional. Currently, statistical methods are to be employed to exploit the content of social media for representing and predicting polls (Moon, 1999).

Methodology involves three kinds of polls and one of them is the benchmark poll is initially taken in a campaign before a candidate his bid for the office. The other one is the brushfire which is conducted between the first announcement and the last poll. It may be taken according to how competitive the race is. It may also be conducted according to how much money the campaign will spend. The other one is the tracking poll which is repeated at intervals. This may be conducted after one week or month and it uses the recent data and discards the older one (Moon, 1999).

Sampling is carried out through internet or sample of populations that are likely to have sampling errors. This is because samples may be very small in size or may not represent the population. It is also very expensive and takes a lot of time to survey everybody. This is the reason why samples are relied on in order to determine the opinions of every citizen. A          scientific poll that is reliable should have a large sample that has enough people to make sure that there is statistical accuracy. It should also have a selection of representative respondents. It shows that if a poll is set to represent the public opinion of Americans then it should not include only ten people or white males.  This would not be reliable because news reporters would rarely mention the details of the sample or how it was carried out (Walden, 1996).

The readers and viewers will only take the results of the poll as facts only. This shows that the probability of errors is very high because the journalists can twist the source and depict the results in a way that is not accurate. Margin of errors are also very common when calculating statistical percentages. This may be corrected through relying on the averages of the polls. Inaccuracy may also be due to nonresponse bias where some people do not answer strange calls or refuse to answer. The rates of response have been seen to decline by ten percent in current years. Response bias also affects the survey results as the answers given do not show they truly believe (Walden, 1996).

 

 

 

 

References

Schuman, H. (2008). Method and meaning in polls and surveys. Cambridge, Mass: Harvard University Press.

Moon, N. (1999). Opinion polls: History, theory and practice. Manchester: Manchester University Press.

Walden, G. R. (1996). Polling and survey research methods, 1935-1979: An annotated bibliography. Westport, Conn: Greenwood Press.

Ceaser, J. W., & Busch, A. (1993). Upside down and inside out: The 1992 elections and American politics. Lanham, Md: Rowman & Littlefield.